Burj al-Muluk
village
Village tied to a mid-March 2025 lethal strike in the ceasefire window.
workbench
poi5on.m3
Source Provenance
sources
Source provenance must stay inspectable if the investigation is going to remain defensible.
This route exposes which outlets, watchlist entities, and cross-reference heuristics the external-event registry actually rests on.
cross-reference filters
Narrow the current section by spike month and flair without losing the route context.
source topology
Local Arabic and Lebanese source classes stay visible as first-class evidence inputs.
caption
The source layer should never disappear behind the charts. This breakdown makes it explicit which kinds of outlets the external-event registry actually depends on.
language mix
The registry is deliberately multilingual because micro-incidents often do not survive translation into wire coverage.
Arabic
14
English
10
Arabic; English
6
French
2
English; Arabic; French
2
Arabic; English; Turkish
1
French; English; Arabic
1
Chinese
1
caption
Language coverage is not cosmetic here. Arabic, French, and English layers have different likelihoods of surfacing obscure names, local villages, and daily ceasefire-violation details.
cross-reference
Priority windows define where timing analysis is most likely to pay off.
2023-11
high2023-11-01 → 2023-11-05
Nasrallah's first major wartime speech plus already elevated November 2023 archive activity.
2024-06
high2024-06-11 → 2024-06-21
Taleb Abdullah killing plus Nasrallah-Cyprus rhetoric; matches a known transition/spike month in the local archive.
2024-07
high2024-07-27 → 2024-08-26
Majdal Shams, Fuad Shukr strike, and Hezbollah's 25 August retaliation form a coherent pre-September escalation arc.
2024-09
highest2024-09-17 → 2024-10-10
Pager and walkie-talkie attacks, Ibrahim Aqil strike, deadliest day in Lebanon since 2006, Nasrallah killing, and early-October ground escalation.
2024-11
highest2024-11-26 → 2024-12-10
Ceasefire announcement, implementation, and immediate first-wave violation pattern.
2025-03
highest2025-03-10 → 2025-04-07
Normalization/border-talk discourse, Gaza ceasefire collapse, first Beirut strike since ceasefire, Hassan Bdeir strike, and Geagea disarmament rhetoric.
2025-11
high2025-11-18 → 2025-11-30
One-year ceasefire anniversary, fresh local incidents, and UNIFIL/L'Orient tallies exceeding 10,000 violations.
2026-02
highest2026-02-28 → 2026-03-14
Khamenei killing, Hezbollah retaliation citing Iran, renewed Beirut strikes, blanket evacuations, and humanitarian escalation.
caption
These windows are merged from multiple vendor research passes. They are not proof zones; they are where the archive should be pressured hardest against external reality.
obscure watchlist
Watchlist entities are the names and places most worth matching back into the archive.
Ali Salim Sufan
person
Hezbollah member killed alongside Hajj Abu Taleb in Jouaiya strike
Hezbollah Nasr Unit
organization
Specific Hezbollah military unit, Hajj Abu Taleb was commander
Jouaiya
village
Tyre district village where Hajj Abu Taleb was killed
Muhammad Hussein Sabra
person
Hezbollah member killed alongside Hajj Abu Taleb in Jouaiya strike
Sami Taleb Abdullah (Hajj Abu Taleb)
person
Senior Hezbollah Nasr Unit commander, killed June 2024 - most senior commander killed since Oct 7 at that time
Taleb Abdullah
person
Senior Hezbollah commander whose killing aligned closely with the 2024-06 subreddit spike.
Mojtaba Amani
person
Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, injured in pager explosions
Ibrahim Aqil
person
High-value Hezbollah commander killed in Beirut during the dense late-September 2024 escalation window.
Radwan Force
militia_reference
Hezbollah's elite unit recurs in assassination coverage of figures like Ibrahim Aqil and Wissam al-Tawil.
Dahieh
neighborhood
Southern Beirut suburbs, Hezbollah stronghold, site of Nasrallah assassination
Abbas Nilforoushan
person
IRGC deputy commander, killed with Nasrallah - Iran connection
caption
This is where obscure villages, figures, roads, and organizations become operational join keys rather than background trivia.
registry
Source registry with coverage strength, bias notes, and vendor overlap.
sourcetypelanguagecoveragevendors
Al Jadeed
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic
medium
2
Al Jazeera English
Regional (Qatar)
arab_regional
English
high_for_major_events_only
2
An-Nahar
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic
medium
2
Anadolu Agency
Regional (Turkey)
arab_regional
Arabic; English; Turkish
medium
2
Associated Press
International
international_wire
English
high_for_major_events_only
2
L'Orient Today
Lebanon
local_lebanese_english
English
high_for_daily_violations
2
L'Orient-Le Jour
Lebanon
local_lebanese_french
French
high_for_daily_violations
2
MTV Lebanon
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic
medium
2
National News Agency (NNA)
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic; English
high_for_daily_violations
2
Reuters
International
international_wire
English
high_for_major_events_only
2
UNIFIL
South Lebanon / UN mission
other
English; Arabic; French
high_for_major_events_only
2
Agence France-Presse (AFP)
International
international_wire
French; English; Arabic
high_for_major_events_only
1
Al Akhbar
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic
medium
1
Al Arabiya
Regional (Saudi/UAE Gulf media sphere)
arab_regional
Arabic; English
medium
1
Al Arabiya
UAE/Saudi (regional)
arab_regional
Arabic, English
high_for_major_events_only
1
Al Araby Al Jadeed / The New Arab
Regional
arab_regional
Arabic; English
medium
1
Al Jazeera Arabic
Regional (Qatar)
arab_regional
Arabic
medium
1
Al Markazia
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic
medium
1
Al Mayadeen
Regional
arab_regional
Arabic; English
medium
1
Al Modon
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic
medium
1
Al-Manar TV
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic
high_for_hezbollah_perspective
1
Amnesty International
International
other
English; Arabic; French
high_for_major_events_only
1
Asharq Al-Awsat
Regional (Saudi-owned)
arab_regional
Arabic
medium
1
Janoubia
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic
medium
1
LBCI / LBC Group
Lebanon
local_lebanese_english
Arabic; English
medium
1
Lebanese Army
Lebanon
other
Arabic; English
medium
1
Naharnet
Lebanon
local_lebanese_english
English
medium
1
Nidaa Al-Watan
Lebanon
local_lebanese_arabic
Arabic
medium
1
The National
Regional (UAE)
arab_regional
English
medium
1
The Times of Israel
Israel
other
English
medium
1
UN Office of High Commissioner for Human Rights
International (UN)
international_organization
English, French, Arabic
medium
1
Xinhua News Agency
China
international_wire
Chinese, English, Arabic
medium
1
caption
This table keeps provenance explicit. If a future claim depends on a source class, the user should be able to see that dependence rather than infer it from narrative prose.
trigger map
Trigger heuristics tie event classes back to likely subreddit responses.
primary
assassination_or_named_targeted_killing
Named commander or operative deaths often trigger celebration, mockery, blame attribution, and identity performance.
primary
major_mass_casualty_day
High-casualty days can trigger fights, humanitarian argument, denial, or shifts toward collective blame.
primary
normalization_or_border_talk_signal
These events map unusually well to the subreddit's peace-branding and Palestine-avoidance/suppression hypotheses.
primary
christian_party_or_historical_memory_speech
Geagea, Kataeb, or Bashir Gemayel references may activate Christian militia nostalgia, sovereigntist rhetoric, and historical-cooperation narratives.
primary
post_ceasefire_micro_incident
Small named-village strikes, detentions, or overflights are ideal for detecting unusually granular awareness inside subreddit comments.
primary
iran_or_syria_spillover_shock
Regional spillover events can trigger anti-Iran framing, anti-Hezbollah narratives, and reframing of Lebanon's risk.
primary
blanket_evacuation_or_displacement_order
These events can sharply change tone, panic, moral framing, and state-failure discourse.
tier_1_triggers
assassination
High activity, celebration in anti-Hezbollah circles, debate over proportionality
caption
This is the bridge between event logging and investigation. It says which kinds of incidents are most likely to map onto celebration, hostility, normalization, or state-failure rhetoric inside the archive.